A strong El Niño is developing and is expected to strengthen during August–October 2026, when it should become the dominant influence on global climate patterns, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in its latest outlook, 31 July 2026 update. The signal points to warmer-than-normal temperatures across many regions, but rainfall prospects diverge sharply: some areas face a greater chance of wet conditions, while others face increased drought risk.
The climate signal is strengthening
WMO’s multi-model forecasts indicate that seasonal mean sea-surface temperature anomalies could exceed 2.9°C in key monitoring regions. Global oceans are already exceptionally warm, and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to develop alongside El Niño. In that pattern, the western Indian Ocean is warmer than average while the eastern part is cooler.
The combination can amplify regional risks around the Indian Ocean basin, including drought, flooding and wildfires. Tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are also expected to remain above average, adding another factor to the seasonal climate picture rather than pointing to one uniform global outcome.
Temperature and rainfall will not move together everywhere
For August–October, WMO’s maps show stronger signals for above-average temperatures across areas including Africa, southern Europe, the Arabian Peninsula, the Indian subcontinent, East Asia, Central America, the Caribbean, southern Africa, much of South America and New Zealand.
Rainfall is more likely to be above normal in the Horn of Africa, parts of Central Asia, southern Europe, western North America south of 45°N and southeastern South America. Drier-than-normal conditions are more likely across the Indian subcontinent, southern and eastern Australia, southern Central America and parts of the Caribbean, northwestern South America and northern Europe.
That regional split is the practical point for governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors. The same developing El Niño can increase rainfall prospects in one area while raising drought concerns elsewhere, so a global headline cannot replace local planning.
Why the outlook still has limits
WMO’s maps show probabilities for seasonal average temperature and precipitation, not guaranteed local conditions. Every El Niño behaves differently depending on its strength, duration, timing and interaction with other climate patterns. Extreme weather can also occur when ENSO is neutral, and impacts can vary within the same region.
El Niño is the warm phase of the natural El Niño–Southern Oscillation, defined by above-average sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Events usually occur every two to seven years and last nine to 12 months. They typically peak between November and February, while their strongest influence on global temperatures often arrives in the following year.
WMO is coordinating climate information and early-warning support for governments, humanitarian agencies, climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and health, and vulnerable communities. A full El Niño/La Niña update is due in early September. WMO’s operational categories are weak, moderate, strong and very strong; “super El Niño” is not an official classification.
The August–October outlook offers an early planning signal, not a fixed forecast for every location. Its main consequence is regional: rainfall and drought risks may intensify in different parts of the world at the same time, while the scheduled September update should provide the next refinement.
